Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Luxury buy box inventory is down, but deals are still getting done

Here is the one number that changes what you should do right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,320 homes for sale across the luxury buy box in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 24.7% from the same period a year ago. Less competition on the shelf means a well-priced listing stands out more than it did last year.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings had price cuts in September, the highest share since October 2022. That is a real signal. But this market is telling a different story. Inventory fell here while sales rose. Those two things do not usually happen at the same time.

Sales are up, not down

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 859 homes sold across the luxury buy box in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 8.2% from the same months of 2025. Pending sales also rose, up 3.6% to 896 contracts. Deals are getting done.

Rates are real, and buyers know it

Rates are not helping buyers. Realtor.com reported mortgage rates topped 7% for the first time since January 2025. A separate report from CNBC cited a Fannie Mae forecast of 7.4% for the average 30-year fixed rate in the fourth quarter of 2026. That is real pressure on monthly payments. Redfin reported the typical homebuyer's monthly payment hit $2,777, the highest level on record except for the previous week.

And yet buyers in this market are still moving. That says something about the people shopping in this price range.

How each ZIP code read in the period

The buy box covers eight ZIP codes. They do not all move together. Here is where each one landed on median sale price and days on market for the three months ending August 31, 2026, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

Where things moved fastest

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked how many homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. In 33330, that share was 29.2%, up 22.7 points from a year ago. In 33332 it was 26.9%, up 12.1 points. In 33029, it was 21.9%, up 10.8 points. These are not slow markets.

A few honest admissions

Not every ZIP code is tightening. In 33326, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 7.3 months of supply and a median sale price that dipped 1.3% year over year. In 33332, the median fell 5.1% and homes took a median of 92 days to sell. In 33027, the median dropped 15.8%. Price did matter in those pockets.

Nationally, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Redfin reported the national median home-sale price rose just 0.5% year over year, the slowest growth since March. This market is outpacing that in several ZIP codes, but not all of them.

What this means for sellers

Fewer homes on the shelf is good news if your price is right. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed sale-to-list ratios improving in nearly every ZIP code year over year. In 33028, homes sold at 98% of list price on average. In 33029 and 33024, it was 97.6%. Buyers are not walking away from well-priced homes.

What this means for buyers

With inventory down 24.7% and new listings down 9.3%, the pool of choices is smaller than it was a year ago. Realtor.com noted the national luxury home entry price threshold fell 3.6% over 30 consecutive months of annual decline to $1,199,321 in September 2026. That is a national softening. Locally, the picture is more mixed, and the best homes are moving in two weeks or less in several ZIP codes.

One more thing worth saying: the numbers above cover whole ZIP codes. One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it. If you want to know what is actually happening on your block, text me your address.